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This Week’s Swing Ideas

Hi Everyone,

To our new members, WELCOME to the NINJA Tribe.  Be sure to watch this week’s swing ideas video with detailed explanation of our top 4 ideas as well as several bonus ideas–>>> This Week’s Video

Our swings continue to perform nicely.  Congrats to those who have been taking advantage of these ideas. However, with the pandemic still upon us, please be sure to trade with EXTREME CAUTION!  I would not be attached to either direction.  Even consider sitting on the sidelines if you are new or haven’t quite mastered discipline yet and wait until the dust settles.  Also, be sure to do your weekly trade journal analysis BEFORE you trade so you can make any necessary adjustments to your trading this week.

OK, let’s look at my top 4 ideas for this week.  If you don’t already, consider using an intraday trigger for entries.  I like to use the 8/34 EMA Cross to the upside for longs.  You can also use the reverse for shorts.  For swings, consider using an intraday chart cross i.e.: 15-, 30- or 60-min charts.  Remember, for each trade idea, do your own due diligence and always trade with extreme caution!

Note that you don’t have to choose the same options listed below.  You’ll want to be sure to stay within your own risk tolerance and portfolio size allocation.  For less volatile price movements in your options, consider going further out of the money and/or further out on your expiration date.  In general, the further out of the money you go, the lower the delta and theta which contributes to less volatility in your option value.  The further out you go on your expiration date, the lower the theta which means less time decay should you want to hold your options longer than a day or two.  Be aware that the delta and theta values fluctuate during market hours.

Keep in mind that you don’t need a big move in the stock to have a big move in your option, up or down!  I try to keep my profit targets at about a $2+/- move in the underlying stock depending on the pattern, my entry, and target on the stock chart.  Be sure to have your own trade plan BEFORE you enter a trade depending on the direction, your entry and duration of your trade!

It’s a good idea to use bracket or OCO (one cancels all, where you can put both your profit and stop targets on one order) orders (if your trading platform has this capability) if you can’t monitor your position(s) intraday.  At the very least you may want to set alerts for yourself at certain price levels in the stock so you’ll have time to make any necessary decisions on your position(s).

Be sure to check the BONUS list at the bottom of this email for several other potential trades.  I cover several of the bonus ideas on this week’s video.  Keep in mind we are still in a headline/tweet driven market environment.  Extreme caution is always warranted!

Have a great rest of your weekend everyone.
DH

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FDX – FedEx Corporation – Integrated Freight & Logistics – USA

FDX has been playing out the RBB pattern beautifully.  It hit our 161.8 fib ext last week on the nose!  Now if breaks above this zone, could see that move toward the 200 SMA, with the 100 SMA and the upper 161.8 fib ext as potential resistance along the way.

To the downside, if can’t break above this upper 127.2 fib ext, could see a pullback toward the 50 SMA, with upper symmetry, lower fib series as well as several MAs as potential support along the way.

According to their website, there is an earnings call on Dec 16th AMC.  ALWAYS check your intraday charts and signals to determine highest probability short-term direction and help with timing your entries and exits BEFORE executing an idea!

Trade Idea – Movement of the Underlying Stock:

CALLS

Entry Zone:      $255+ (above Friday’s hi/upper 127.2 fib ext)
Profit Zone:      $257+/- area, depending on your entry and duration
Stop Zone:       $254+/- area (close below upper 127.2 fib ext), depending on your entry and duration

Option Trade Idea:  Dec 17 $270 Calls     $4.40 / $4.55      Delta .29 / Theta -.13

PUTS
Entry Zone:      $254- (below upper 127.2 fib ext)
Profit Zone:      $252+/- area, depending on your entry and duration
Stop Zone:       255+/- area (close above upper 127.2 fib ext), depending on your entry and duration

Option Trade Idea:  Dec 17 $240 Puts     $5.05 / $5.30      Delta .29 / Theta -.14

Option Profit Zone:         10 – 50%+ depending on your entry and duration
Option Stop Zone:          5 – 25%+/- depending on your entry and duration

 

HD – The Home Depot, Inc. – USA

HD has been uptrending since the summer and has bon into a consolidation pattern on the daily.  Recent ATH $375 psychological level.  Setup currently to the upside, but if can’t hold this upper symmetry, could see a move back toward lower trendline, with 8 EMA, 20 SMA & lower fib series as potential support.

To the upside, if stays above upper symmetry, could see a move back toward ATH/$375 psychological level.  Remember, you don’t need a big move to take a nice bite.  Note earnings on Dec 16th BMO.  ALWAYS check your intraday charts and signals to determine highest probability short-term direction and help with timing your entries and exits BEFORE executing an idea!

Trade Idea – Movement of the Underlying Stock:

CALLS
Entry Zone:      $372.50+ (above upper symmetry)
Profit Zone:      $375+/- area (note Fri hi & upper 127.2 pot resist), depending on your entry and duration
Stop Zone:       $371.75+/- area (close below upper symmetry), depending on your entry and duration

Option Trade Idea:  Dec 17 $390 Calls     $3.30 / $3.50      Delta .24 / Theta -.11

PUTS
Entry Zone:      $371.75- (below upper symmetry)
Profit Zone:      $369.75+/- area, depending on your entry and duration
Stop Zone:       $372.50+/- area (above upper symmetry), depending on your entry and duration

Option Trade Idea:  Dec 17 $355 Puts     $4.65 / $4.85      Delta .26 / Theta -.14

Option Profit Zone:         10 – 50%+ depending on your entry and duration
Option Stop Zone:          5 – 25%+/- depending on your entry and duration

 

AMD – Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. – Semiconductors – USA

AMD is currently in a Fibonacci retracement pattern. Fri ran up to upper 127.2 fib ext, closing just below.  If continues to upside, could see a move back toward $155 ATH zone.  Note $150 psychological level that lines up with upper 161.8 fib ext as potential resistance along the way.

To the downside, if can’t break above upper 127.2 fib ext, could see a move back toward the 8 EMA that lines up with the 1/3 retracement level for the Fib retracement pattern.  You’ve got lower fib series as well as upper symmetry as potential support along the way.  ALWAYS check your intraday charts and signals to determine highest probability short-term direction and help with timing your entries and exits BEFORE executing an idea!

Trade Idea – Movement of the Underlying Stock:

CALLS
Entry Zone:    $148.75+ (above upper 127.2 fib ext)
Profit Zone:    $150.75+/- area, depending on your entry and duration
Stop Zone:     $147.75+/- area, close below upper 127.2 fib ext, depending on entry and duration

Option Trade Idea:  Dec 17 $155 Calls     $5.75 / $5.90      Delta .40 / Theta -.12

PUTS
Entry Zone:   $147.75- (below upper 127.2 fib ext)
Profit Zone:   $145.75+/- area (note upper symmetry as pot support), depending on your entry and duration
Stop Zone:    $148.75+ area, close above upper 127.2 fib ext, depending on entry and duration

Option Trade Idea:  Dec 17 $140 Puts    $4.70 / $4.80       Delta .32 / Theta -.11

Option Profit Zone:         10 – 50%+ depending on your entry and duration
Option Stop Zone:          5 – 25%+/- depending on your entry and duration

 

CHWY – Chewy, Inc. – Internet Retail – USA

CHWY is playing out an RBB pattern on daily.  Already hit the 100 SMA and pulled back, bouncing off 50 SMA Fri, closing just below upper 127.2 fib ext.  If continues to upside, could the move toward the 200 SMA with upper 161.8 fib ext as well as 100 SMA as potential resistance along the way.  Also note gap down from Sept 1st.

To the downside, if can’t break above upper 127.2 fib ext, could see a pullback toward 50 SMA with lower fib series, several MAs as well as $75 psychological level as potential support along the way.  Note earnings Dec 1st AMC according to ToS, but Dec 7th AMC according to Earnings Whispers, no date on company website.  ALWAYS check your intraday charts and signals to determine highest probability short-term direction and help with timing your entries and exits BEFORE executing an idea!

Trade Idea – Movement of the Underlying Stock:

CALLS
Entry Zones:   $77.50+ (above upper 127.2 fib ext)
Profit Zones:   $78.50+/- area (note 100 SMA pot resist), depending on your entry and duration
Stop Zone:      $76.75- area, close below upper 127.2 fib ext, depending on entry and duration

Option Trade Idea:  Dec 17 $80 Calls         $4.65 / $4.75        Delta .46 / Theta -.09

PUTS
Entry Zone:    $76.75- (below upper 127.2 fib ext)
Profit Zone:    $75.75+/- area, depending on your entry and duration
Stop Zone:     $77.50+/- area, close above upper 127.2 fib ext, depending on entry and duration

Option Trade Idea:  Dec 17 $75 Puts         $4.85 / $5.05        Delta .41 / Theta -.08

Option Profit Zone:         10 – 50%+ depending on your entry and duration
Option Stop Zone:          5 – 25%+/- depending on your entry and duration

 

BONUS IDEAS: Others for you to watch, moving averages on the daily charts. CHECK THOSE EARNING DATES BEFORE TAKING A TRADE. Although I don’t send alerts or updates on these, I do cover several of them in this week’s video, so be sure to watch. There are setups there that you can check out, do your own diligence, and trade if you choose.

Watch over the 8 EMA: PG, BBY, CVS, DHI

Watch over the 50 SMA:  PKI, DGX, CMG, BLL, AMN

Watch over the 100 SMA:   WPM, CC, WELL, SMAR, LH

Potential Fib Retracements:  ETSY, SHOP, DASH, U, BLNK

Potential Puts:  CELH, AZN, CPNG, DAR, OLLI

Potential RBBs:  WW, WIX, W, ENR, CLX

Potential Pinballs:  VALE, TIGR, SID, MPLN

 

 

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