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This Week’s Swing Ideas

Hi Everyone,

To our new members, WELCOME to the NINJA Tribe.  Be sure to watch this week’s swing ideas video with detailed explanation of our top 4 ideas as well as several bonus ideas–>>> This Week’s Video

Our swings continue to perform nicely.  Congrats to those who have been taking advantage of these ideas. However, with the pandemic still upon us, please be sure to trade with EXTREME CAUTION!  I would not be attached to either direction.  Even consider sitting on the sidelines if you are new or haven’t quite mastered discipline yet and wait until the dust settles.  Also, be sure to do your weekly trade journal analysis BEFORE you trade so you can make any necessary adjustments to your trading this week.

OK, let’s look at my top 4 ideas for this week.  If you don’t already, consider using an intraday trigger for entries.  I like to use the 8/34 EMA Cross to the upside for longs.  You can also use the reverse for shorts.  For swings, consider using an intraday chart cross i.e.: 15-, 30- or 60-min charts.  Remember, for each trade idea, do your own due diligence and always trade with extreme caution!

Note that you don’t have to choose the same options listed below.  You’ll want to be sure to stay within your own risk tolerance and portfolio size allocation.  For less volatile price movements in your options, consider going further out of the money and/or further out on your expiration date.  In general, the further out of the money you go, the lower the delta and theta which contributes to less volatility in your option value.  The further out you go on your expiration date, the lower the theta which means less time decay should you want to hold your options longer than a day or two.  Be aware that the delta and theta values fluctuate during market hours.

Keep in mind that you don’t need a big move in the stock to have a big move in your option, up or down!  I try to keep my profit targets at about a $2+/- move in the underlying stock depending on the pattern, my entry, and target on the stock chart.  Be sure to have your own trade plan BEFORE you enter a trade depending on the direction, your entry and duration of your trade!

It’s a good idea to use bracket or OCO (one cancels all, where you can put both your profit and stop targets on one order) orders (if your trading platform has this capability) if you can’t monitor your position(s) intraday.  At the very least you may want to set alerts for yourself at certain price levels in the stock so you’ll have time to make any necessary decisions on your position(s).

Be sure to check the BONUS list at the bottom of this email for several other potential trades.  I cover several of the bonus ideas on this week’s video.  Keep in mind we are still in a headline/tweet driven market environment.  Extreme caution is always warranted!

Have a great rest of your weekend everyone.
DH

 

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LOW – Lowe’s Companies, Inc. – Home Improvement Retail – USA

LOW hit ATH last week after an earnings beat.  Currently in royal setup on daily.  Fri closed near $250 psychological level.  If breaks above this level, could see a move back toward ATH with upper fib series as potential resistance along the way.

To the downside, ​​if can’t hold this level, could see a pullback toward 8 EMA that lines up with lower 161.8 fib ext.  Has lower fib series as potential support along the way.  ALWAYS check your intraday charts and signals to determine highest probability short-term direction and help with timing your entries and exits BEFORE executing an idea!

Trade Idea – Movement of the Underlying Stock:

CALLS

Entry Zones:      $251.50+ (above upper symmetry), $252.75+ (above upper 127.2)
Profit Zones:      $252.50, $254.50+/- areas (note upper 161.8 as pot resist),
​ depending on your entry and duration
Stop Zone:        $250.75+/- area (close below upper symmetry), depending on your entry and duration

Option Trade Idea:  Dec 17 $250 Calls     $6.25 / $6.60      Delta .38 / Theta -.09

PUTS
Entry Zones:      $249- (below Fri close), $247- (below lower symmetry)
Profit Zones:      $247+/- area, depending on your entry and duration
Stop Zone:        $250+/- area (close above Fri close), depending on your entry and duration

Option Trade Idea:  Dec 17 $240 Puts     $2.90 / $3.10      Delta .28 / Theta -.11

Option Profit Zone:         10 – 50%+ depending on your entry and duration
Option Stop Zone:          5 – 25%+/- depending on your entry and duration

 

CHWY – Chewy, Inc. – Internet Retail – USA

CHWY is still in an RBB pattern on daily.   Tested and held support at the 34 EMA on daily that lines up with lower symmetry.  If breaks below this level, could see a move toward the 50 SMA with lower fib series as potential support along the way.  Note that pattern is broken on a close below the 50 SMA.  If breakd below 50 SMA, you’ve bot a low from Oct at $60.45.  Lots of support zones along the way, but interesting to note.

To the upside, if continues in RBB pattern, could see that move toward the 200 SMA with upper fib series as well as the 100SMA as potential resistance along the way.  Note earnings Dec 9th AMC according to CHWY website.  Remember, ALWAYS check your intraday charts and signals to determine highest probability short-term direction and help with timing your entries and exits BEFORE executing an idea!

Trade Idea – Movement of the Underlying Stock:

CALLS
Entry Zones:   $73+ (above Fri close), $74+ (above daily 8 EMA), $76.25+ (above upper symmetry/Fri hi)
Profit Zones:   $74+/-, $75+/-, $77.50+/- area (note upper 127.2 pot resist), depending on your entry and duration
Stop Zone:      $72.50- area, close below upper Fri close, depending on entry and duration

Option Trade Idea:  Dec 17 $75 Calls         $4.55 / $4.65        Delta .48 / Theta -.10

PUTS
Entry Zone:     $72.35- (below lower symm)
Profit Zone:     $70.75+/- area (note lower 127.2 pot support), depending on your entry and duration
Stop Zone:      $73+/- area, close above Fri close, depending on entry and duration

Option Trade Idea:  Dec 17 $70 Puts         $3.80 / $3.95        Delta .38 / Theta -.09

Option Profit Zone:         10 – 50%+ depending on your entry and duration
Option Stop Zone:          5 – 25%+/- depending on your entry and duration

M – Macy’s, Inc. – Department Stores – USA

M is currently in a Fibonacci retracement pattern. Has a double top zone that lines up with upper 127.2 fib ext.  Hit that zone Thur and dropped closing just below lower symmetry.  If continues to downside, could see a move toward the 8 EMA on daily with lower fib series as potential support along the way.

To the upside, if holds above 1/3 retracement and if breaks above that double top/upper 127.2 fib ext, could see a move toward $40 range that closed gap from a few years back.  See video for deeper explanation.  Beyond that, there is a hit at $41.99 that same day of gap.  Again, ALWAYS check your intraday charts and signals to determine highest probability short-term direction and help with timing your entries and exits BEFORE executing an idea!

Trade Idea – Movement of the Underlying Stock:

CALLS
Entry Zone:    $35+ (above Fri close)
Profit Zone:    $36.50+/- area, depending on your entry and duration
Stop Zone:     $34.50+/- area, close below lower symmetry, depending on entry and duration

Option Trade Idea:  Jan 21, 2022 $35 Calls     $3.05 / $3.25      Delta .53 / Theta -.03

PUTS
Entry Zone:   $34.75- (below upper 127.2 fib ext)
Profit Zone:   $32.75+/- area (note lower 127.2 & 8 EMA as pot support), depending on your entry and duration
Stop Zone:    $35+ area, close above Fri close, depending on entry and duration

Option Trade Idea:  Jan 21, 2022 $30 Puts    $1.31 / $1.41       Delta .24 / Theta -.02

Option Profit Zone:         10 – 50%+ depending on your entry and duration
Option Stop Zone:          5 – 25%+/- depending on your entry and duration

WW – WW International, Inc. – Personal Services – USA

WW was in an RBB, but broke below the 50 SMA on Thu and closed below it Fri.  At this spot, could see a move lower toward Oct $17 low.  If gets back over and STAYS over the 50 SMA, could see a move toward the 200 SMA with a few fib series as well as the 100 SMA as potential resistance along the way.

​​Note that gap down post Aug earnings.  Beyond the 200 SMA could see that move back toward closing the gap.  Lower ATR, slower mover in general.  Could be longer term hold.  May need to hold through some MA chop.  Remember, ALWAYS check your intraday charts and signals to determine highest probability short-term direction and help with timing your entries and exits BEFORE executing an idea!

Trade Idea – Movement of the Underlying Stock:

CALLS
Entry Zone:     $19+ (above Fri close)
Profit Zone:     $20.50+/- area (note upper fib series as well as 8&34 EMAs as pot resist),
​depending on your entry and duration
Stop Zone:      $18.75- area, close below Fri close, depending on entry and duration

Option Trade Idea:  Jan 21, 2022 $20 Calls      $1.40 / $1.55        Delta .46 / Theta -.02

PUTS
Entry Zone:    $18.75- (below Fri close)
Profit Zone:    $17.35+/- area (note lower fib series as pot support), depending on your entry and duration
Stop Zone:     $19+/- area, close above Fri close, depending on entry and duration

Option Trade Idea:  Jan 21, 2022 $17.50 Puts        $1.20 / $1.35        Delta .34 / Theta -.01

Option Profit Zone:         10 – 50%+ depending on your entry and duration
Option Stop Zone:          5 – 25%+/- depending on your entry and duration

BONUS IDEAS: Others for you to watch, moving averages on the daily charts. CHECK THOSE EARNING DATES BEFORE TAKING A TRADE. Although I don’t send alerts or updates on these, I do cover several of them in this week’s video, so be sure to watch. There are setups there that you can check out, do your own diligence, and trade if you choose.

Watch over the 8 EMA: BBY, DHI, ETSY, PG,U

Watch over the 50 SMA: BMRA, DHR, FCUV, TXN, WING

Watch over the 100 SMA: ABB, AMKR, AXON, BDX, EDV

Potential Fib Retracements: ANET, BLNK, DLTR, DPZ, SHOP

Potential Puts: AZN, CELH, DAR, DIS, TDC

Potential RBBs: BEKE, CLX, CVGW, W, XPER

Potential Pinballs: CEMI, CDNA, PGEN, NRXP

 

 

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