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This Week’s Swing Ideas

Hi Everyone,

To our new members, WELCOME to the NINJA Tribe.  Be sure to watch this week’s swing ideas video with detailed explanation of our top 4 ideas as well as several bonus ideas–>>> This Week’s Video

Our swings continue to perform nicely.  Congrats to those who have been taking advantage of these ideas. However, with the pandemic still upon us, please be sure to trade with EXTREME CAUTION!  I would not be attached to either direction.  Even consider sitting on the sidelines if you are new or haven’t quite mastered discipline yet and wait until the dust settles.  Also, be sure to do your weekly trade journal analysis BEFORE you trade so you can make any necessary adjustments to your trading this week.

OK, let’s look at my top 4 ideas for this week.  If you don’t already, consider using an intraday trigger for entries.  I like to use the 8/34 EMA Cross to the upside for longs.  You can also use the reverse for shorts.  For swings, consider using an intraday chart cross i.e.: 15-, 30- or 60-min charts.  Remember, for each trade idea, do your own due diligence and always trade with extreme caution!

Note that you don’t have to choose the same options listed below.  You’ll want to be sure to stay within your own risk tolerance and portfolio size allocation.  For less volatile price movements in your options, consider going further out of the money and/or further out on your expiration date.  In general, the further out of the money you go, the lower the delta and theta which contributes to less volatility in your option value.  The further out you go on your expiration date, the lower the theta which means less time decay should you want to hold your options longer than a day or two.  Be aware that the delta and theta values fluctuate during market hours.

Keep in mind that you don’t need a big move in the stock to have a big move in your option, up or down!  I try to keep my profit targets at about a $2+/- move in the underlying stock depending on the pattern, my entry, and target on the stock chart.  Be sure to have your own trade plan BEFORE you enter a trade depending on the direction, your entry and duration of your trade!

It’s a good idea to use bracket or OCO (one cancels all, where you can put both your profit and stop targets on one order) orders (if your trading platform has this capability) if you can’t monitor your position(s) intraday.  At the very least you may want to set alerts for yourself at certain price levels in the stock, so you’ll have time to make any necessary decisions on your position(s).

Be sure to check the BONUS list at the bottom of this email for several other potential trades.  I cover several of the bonus ideas on this week’s video.  Keep in mind we are still in a headline/tweet driven market environment.  Extreme caution is always warranted!

Have a great rest of your weekend everyone.
DH

*****************

BYND – Beyond Meat, Inc. – Packaged Foods – USA

BYND is a potential pinball on daily.  Has to close above the 8 EMA first!  Currently on intraday chart, trying to set up to downside.  15 min squeeze fired short on Fri.  If continues to the downside, could see a move toward double bottom with lower fib series and $75 psychological level as potential support along the way.

To the upside, if breaks above the 8 EMA, could see a move toward 34 EMA for the pinball move.  Note the 20 SMA as potential resistance along the way as well as a couple of upper fib series.  Also note that gap down on Nov 11.  Another interesting note is their short float which according to finviz.com is 30.28%.  That’s a pretty high short interest.  Remember when TSLA had a 29% short float?  We could be a short squeeze away from a nice move higher.  ALWAYS check your intraday charts and signals to determine highest probability short-term direction and help with timing your entries and exits BEFORE executing an idea!

Trade Idea – Movement of the Underlying Stock:

CALLS

Entry Zones:     $76.25+ (above Fri close), $77.15+ (above upper symmetry)
Profit Zones:     $77.10, $78.15+/- areas (note Fri hi as pot resist), depending on your entry and duration
Stop Zone:        $76.75+/- area (close below upper symmetry), depending on your entry and duration

Option Trade Idea:  Jan 21 $85 Calls     $3.20 / $3.50      Delta .35 / Theta -.05

PUTS
Entry Zones:      $75.85- (below Fri close), $74.35- (below lower symmetry)
Profit Zones:      $74.50+/-, 73.50+/-, $72.50+/- areas, depending on your entry and duration
Stop Zone:        $76.25+/- area (close above Fri close), depending on your entry and duration

Option Trade Idea:  Jan 21 $70 Puts     $3.60 / $3.85      Delta .30 / Theta -.05

Option Profit Zone:         10 – 50%+ depending on your entry and duration
Option Stop Zone:          5 – 25%+/- depending on your entry and duration

 

Z – Zillow Group, Inc. – Internet Content & Information – USA

Z is another potential pinball on daily.  But holding below the 8 EMA.  With their recent exit from the iBuying marketplace, they stock has plummeted from $104 area to now $55 area in less than a month, with the initial drop over 3 days in the beginning of November.  It closed Fri just slightly bouncing off a double bottom zone.  But could see some more downside here if breaks below this zone.

To the upside, if breaks above the 8 EMA on daily, could see the potential pinball play out in move toward 34 EMA with upper fib series as well as the 20 SMA as potential resistance along the way.  There are several class action lawsuits on this one so be careful if going long.  Remember, ALWAYS check your intraday charts and signals to determine highest probability short-term direction and help with timing your entries and exits BEFORE executing an idea!

Trade Idea – Movement of the Underlying Stock:

CALLS
Entry Zones:   $55.75+ (above Fri close), $57.75+ (above daily 8 EMA/upper symmetry)
Profit Zones:   $57.50+/-, $58.50+/- areas, depending on your entry and duration
Stop Zone:      $55.25- area, close below Fri close, depending on entry and duration

Option Trade Idea:  Jan 21 $60 Calls         $3.25 / $3.45        Delta .41 / Theta -.05

PUTS
Entry Zone:     $55.25- (below Fri close)
Profit Zone:     $53.50+/- area, depending on your entry and duration
Stop Zone:      $55.75+/- area, close above Fri close, depending on entry and duration

Option Trade Idea:  Jan 21 $50 Puts         $2.71 / $2.82        Delta .29 / Theta -.04

Option Profit Zone:         10 – 50%+ depending on your entry and duration
Option Stop Zone:          5 – 25%+/- depending on your entry and duration

PTON – Peloton Interactive, Inc. – Leisure – USA

PTON is another one hovering around just below that 8 EMA on daily.  Above this zone, it sets up a potential pinball.  Has to close above the 8 EMA to be in pinball pattern.   PTON tanked post earnings miss in beginning of Nov.  Then priced offering @ $46 on Nov 16th sending the stock even lower.  Also has several class action suits against them.  Has room to downside to a double bottom zone at $38 area.  Has lower fib series as potential support along the way.

To the upside, if breaks above 8 EMA, could see the move toward the 34 EMA with upper fib series as well as 20 SMA as potential resistance along the way.  Note with the class action lawsuits be very very careful going long with this one.  Again, ALWAYS check your intraday charts and signals to determine highest probability short-term direction and help with timing your entries and exits BEFORE executing an idea!

Trade Idea – Movement of the Underlying Stock:

CALLS
Entry Zones:    $46.50+ (above Fri close), $48.50+ (above upper symmetry)
Profit Zones:    $47.25+/-, $50+/- areas, depending on your entry and duration
Stop Zone:       $46+/- area, close below Fri close, depending on entry and duration

Option Trade Idea:  Jan 21 $50 Calls     $4.05 / $4.20      Delta .46 / Theta -.05

PUTS
Entry Zones:   $46- (below Fri close), $44.25- (below lower symmetry)
Profit Zones:   $45+/-, $43.50+/-, $42.50+/- areas, depending on your entry and duration
Stop Zone:      $46.50+ area, close above Fri close, depending on entry and duration

Option Trade Idea:  Jan 21 $45 Puts    $4.70 / $4.85       Delta .40 / Theta -.05

Option Profit Zone:         10 – 50%+ depending on your entry and duration
Option Stop Zone:          5 – 25%+/- depending on your entry and duration

 

DKNG – DraftKings Inc. – Gambling – USA

DKNG riding below the 8 EMA on daily.  Bounced off a multiple bottom zone several days last week.  If breaks below this zone, could see a move toward $25 psychological level with a few fib series as well as another double bottom zone in the $30 area.  See video for full explanation on these zones.

To the upside, if breaks above the 8 EMA on daily, we have another potential pinball play for a move toward 34 EMA with the upper fib series and 20 SMA as potential resistance along the way.  Remember, ALWAYS check your intraday charts and signals to determine highest probability short-term direction and help with timing your entries and exits BEFORE executing an idea!

Trade Idea – Movement of the Underlying Stock:

CALLS
Entry Zone:     $36.25+ (above Fri close)
Profit Zone:     $37.25+/- area (note upper symmetry as pot resist), depending on your entry and duration
Stop Zone:      $35.75- area, close below Fri close, depending on entry and duration

Option Trade Idea:  Jan 21 $40 Calls      $2.42 / $2.47        Delta .40 / Theta -.03

PUTS
Entry Zone:    $35.75- (below Fri close)
Profit Zone:    $34.75+/- area, depending on your entry and duration
Stop Zone:     $36.25+/- area, close above Fri close, depending on entry and duration

Option Trade Idea:  Jan 21 $35 Puts        $3.15 / $3.30        Delta .41 / Theta -.03

Option Profit Zone:         10 – 50%+ depending on your entry and duration
Option Stop Zone:          5 – 25%+/- depending on your entry and duration

 

BONUS IDEAS: Others for you to watch, moving averages on the daily charts. CHECK THOSE EARNING DATES BEFORE TAKING A TRADE. Although I don’t send alerts or updates on these, I do cover several of them in this week’s video, so be sure to watch. There are setups there that you can check out, do your own diligence, and trade if you choose.

Watch over the 8 EMA:  AMD, DHR, DPZ, NVDA, XPEV

​Watch over the 50 SMA:  CHWY, CTLT, FDX, HUM

​Watch over the 100 SMA: BRKR, GILD, K, LH

Potential Fib Retracements:   BNTX, MRNA, NVAX, QDEL

Potential Puts:   AXP, CELH, CZR, DAR, DIS

​Potential RBBs:   APT, ATNF, BEKE, CVAC

Potential Pinballs: CEMI, CDNA, EHTH, PGEN, SFIX, PENN

 

 

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