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This Week’s Swing Ideas

Hi Everyone,

To our new members, WELCOME to the NINJA Tribe.  Be sure to watch this week’s swing ideas video with detailed explanation of our top 4 ideas as well as several of the BONUS ideas —>>>This Week’s Video

Our swings have been performing beautifully this year.  Congrats to those who have been taking advantage of these ideas.  However, with the pandemic still upon us, please be sure to trade with EXTREME CAUTION!  I would not be attached to either direction.  Even consider sitting on the sidelines if you are new or haven’t quite mastered discipline yet, and wait until the dust settles.  Also, be sure to do your weekly trade journal analysis BEFORE tomorrow morning so you can make any necessary adjustments to your trading this week.

OK, let’s look at my top 4 ideas for this week.  If you don’t already, consider using an intraday trigger for entries.  I like to use the 8/34 EMA Cross to the upside for longs.  You can also use the reverse for shorts.  For swings, consider using an intraday chart cross i.e.: 15-, 30- or 60-min charts.  Remember, for each trade idea, do your own due diligence and always trade with extreme caution!

Note that you don’t have to choose the same options listed below.  You’ll want to be sure to stay within your own risk tolerance and portfolio size allocation.  For less volatile price movements in your options, consider going further out of the money and/or further out on your expiration date.  In general, the further out of the money you go, the lower the delta and theta which contributes to less volatility in your option value.  The further out you go on your expiration date, the lower the theta which means less time decay should you want to hold your options longer than a day or two.  Be aware that the delta and theta values fluctuate during market hours.

Keep in mind that you don’t need a big move in the stock to have a big move in your option, up or down!  I try to keep my profit targets at about a $2+/- move in the underlying stock depending on the pattern, my entry, and target on the stock chart.  Be sure to have your own trade plan BEFORE you enter a trade depending on the direction, your entry and duration of your trade!

It’s a good idea to use bracket or OCO (one cancels all, where you can put both your profit and stop targets on one order) orders (if your trading platform has this capability) if you can’t monitor your position(s) intraday.  At the very least you may want to set alerts for yourself at certain price levels in the stock so you’ll have time to make any necessary decisions on your position(s).

Be sure to check the BONUS list at the bottom of this email for several other potential trades.  I cover several of the bonus ideas on this week’s video.  Keep in mind we are still in a headline/tweet driven market environment.  Extreme caution is always warranted!

Have a great rest of your Sunday all.

DH

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MSFT – Microsoft Corporation – Software – Infrastructure – USA

MSFT has been generally uptrending for several months.  It recently played out the head and shoulders pattern and bounced off lower trendline.  Also broke above the upper trendline of the H&R pattern last Thur after an analyst upgrade on 11/5.  It held that zone Fri.  If continues to the upside, could see a move toward the recent $232 high zone that line up with upper 161.8 fib ext.  MSFT has listed for 11/12 at 10a PT Jefferies Interactive Entertainment Virtual Conference and has a dividend on 11/18.

To the downside, if breaks below upper symmetry, could see a move toward the cluster of MAs on the daily bear the lower 161.8 fib ext.  Be sure to check your intraday charts and signals to help with timing your entries and exits in either direction.

Trade Idea – Movement of the Underlying Stock:

CALLS
Entry Zones:   $221+ (p/b to upper symmetry), $226 (above upper 127.2 fib ext)
Profit Zones:   $223+, $228+/- area, depending on your entry and duration
Stop Zone:    $219.50- area, close below upper symmetry, depending on entry and duration

Option Trade Idea:  Nov 20 $225 Calls    $3.55 / $3.85     Delta .45 / Theta -.17

PUTS
Entry Zones:   $219.50- (below upper symmetry), $217-, (below lower symmetry)
Profit Zones:   $217.50-, $215+/- area depending on your entry and duration
Stop Zone:    $22.50 area, close above upper symmetry, depending on entry and duration

Option Trade Idea:  Nov 20 $225 Puts    $5.35 / $5.85    Delta .55 / Theta -.19

Option Profit Zone:        10 – 50%+ depending on your entry and duration
Option Stop Zone:          5 – 25%+/- depending on your entry and duration

CRWD – CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. – Internet Content & Information – USA

CRWD has been uptrending this year as well.  It has found a double top zone at the $154 area.  Fri it hit a high at the upper 127.2 fib ext and pulled back.  If continues to upside, could see a move toward that double top with $150 psychological level as well as fib extensions along the way action as potential resistance.

To the downside, if breaks below the 20 SMA near the lower symmetry, could see a move toward the lower trendline.  Note the MA cluster between lower symmetry and lower 127.2 fib ext.  Also note they have earnings on 12/2 AMC.  Either way, if taking in either direction, be sure to check your intraday charts and signals to help with timing your entries and exits in either direction.

Trade Idea – Movement of the Underlying Stock:

CALLS
Entry Zones:     $139+ (p/b to upper symmetry), $144.50 (above Fri hi & upper 127.2 fib ext)
Profit Zones:     $141+, $146.50+/- areas, depending on your entry and duration
Stop Zone:        $138- area, close below upper symmetry, depending on entry and duration

Option Trade Idea:  Dec 18 $150 Calls    $7.85 / $8.50      Delta .43 / Theta -.14

PUTS
Entry Zones:   $141.50- (below Fri close), $138.50 (below upper symm), $136.50 (below lower symm)
Profit Zones:   $139.50-, $136.50-, $134.50+/- area depending on your entry and duration
Stop Zone:    $142.50+ area, close above Fri close, depending on entry and duration

Option Trade Idea:  Dec 18 $130 Puts    $5.35 / $6.65     Delta .30 / Theta -.12

Option Profit Zone:         10 – 50%+ depending on your entry and duration
Option Stop Zone:           5 – 25%+ depending on your entry and duration

BZUN – Baozun Inc. – Internet Retail – China

BZUN recently broke above an upper pennant pattern trendline.  If continues to upside, could see a move toward recent $44.69 high zone just below upper 161.8 fib ext.  According to finviz.com, BZUN has a 24.40% short float.  We could be a short squeeze away from a nice move higher here.

To the downside, if drops below upper pennant trendline, could see a move toward the 8 EMA near the lower 161.8 fib ext.
Note earnings on 11/19 BMO.  Again, BEFORE executing an idea, be sure to check intraday charts and signals to help with timing your entries and exits in either direction.

Trade Idea – Movement of the Underlying Stock:

CALLS
Entry Zones:     $42+ (p/b to upper symm), $43.50 (above upper 127.2 fib ext)
Profit Zones:     $43+/-, $44.50 +/- areas, depending on your entry and duration
Stop Zone:        $41.50- area, close below upper symmetry, depending on entry and duration

Option Trade Idea:  Dec 18 $40 Calls    $4.70 / $5.10       Delta .65 / Theta -.04

PUTS
Entry Zones:    $41- (below upper trendline), $40- (below lower symmetry)
Profit Zones:    $40+/-, $39+/- areas depending on your entry and duration
Stop Zone:       $41.50+ area, close above upper trendline/near upper symmetry,
depending on entry and duration

Option Trade Idea:  Jan 15 $40 Puts    $3.20 / $3.80    Delta .36 / Theta -.03

Option Profit Zone:         10 – 50%+ depending on your entry and duration
Option Stop Zone:           5 – 25%+ depending on your entry and duration

SPR – Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, Inc. – Aerospace & Defense – USA

SPR is in a Rounded Bottom Breakout pattern.  They had an analyst upgrade last week that put the stock over the 100 SMA.  Fri it went to the upper 127.2 fib ext and pulled back slightly.  Low ATR which means it could move slower in general.  However, daily squeeze fired long could give move ward $25 pscyhological level.  SPR CEO speaking at the UBS Aerospace Virtual Conference on 11/12 at 11:30a EST.  Note the higher delta and low theta.  You don’t need a big move on this one to have a nice return in either direction.

To the downside, if breaks below 100 SMA, could see a move toward 8 EMA with fib ext as potential support along the way.  Again, BEFORE executing an idea, be sure to check intraday charts and signals to help with timing your entries and exits in either direction.

Trade Idea – Movement of the Underlying Stock:

CALLS
Entry Zones:  $21+ (pullback to 100 SMA), $22.25 (above upper 127.2 fib ext)
Profit Zones:  $21.50+/-, $22.75+/- area, depending on your entry and duration
Stop Zone:     $20.75- area, close below 100 SMA/lower symmetry, depending on entry and duration

Option Trade Idea:  Dec 18 $22.50 Calls    $1.60 / $1.80      Delta .49 / Theta -.02

PUTS
Entry Zone:    $20.75- (below lower symmetry)
Profit Zone:    $20.25+/- area, depending on your entry and duration
Stop Zone:     $21.25+ area, close above lower symmetry, depending on entry and duration

Option Trade Idea:  Dec 18 $22.50 Puts      $2.30 / $2.55     Delta .51 / Theta -.02

Option Profit Zone:         10 – 50%+ depending on your entry and duration
Option Stop Zone:           5 – 25%+/- depending on your entry and duration

BONUS IDEAS:  Others for you to watch, moving averages are on the daily charts.  CHECK THOSE EARNINGS DATES BEFORE TAKING A TRADE.  Although I don’t send alerts or updates on these, I do cover several of them in this week’s video, so be sure to watch the video.  There are setups there that you can check out, do your own due diligence, and trade if you choose.

Watch over the 8 EMA:   AMED, AMRK, CROX, DG, DXCM, IMO, RGNX, SAGE, SAVE, SFIX, ZEN

Watch over the 50 SMA:   BA, CBRL, CVX, DXPE, HP, NCLH, PLCE, UDR, VNOM, XRX

Watch over the 100 SMA:   AMCX, M, NBR, QURE, TGI, TS, VREX, WBA, WYNN

Potential Fib Retracements:   AAXN, ABC, ADBE, AEIS, ALLK, ALRM, ALXN, ANET, BIIB, CASH, CIT, CPS, MCK, MHK, NSP, SCHW, SNAP, TWLO

Potential Puts:   ANIP, EPZM, FANG, KPTI, NUVA, OKE

Potential RBBs:   ALEC, BAP, BMA, CPE, CRS, HXL, IMO, INGN, MPC, RAD, SJI, ZGNX

Potential Pinballs:   CVI, GOSS, ICPT, TCDA, TRHC,

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