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This Week’s Swing Ideas

Hi Everyone,

To our new members, WELCOME to the NINJA Tribe.  Be sure to watch this week’s swing ideas video with detailed explanation of our top 4 ideas as well as several of the BONUS ideas —>>>This Week’s Video

Our swings have been performing beautifully this year.  Congrats to those who have been taking advantage of these ideas.  However, with the pandemic still upon us, please be sure to trade with EXTREME CAUTION!  I would not be attached to either direction.  Even consider sitting on the sidelines if you are new or haven’t quite mastered discipline yet, and wait until the dust settles.  Also, be sure to do your weekly trade journal analysis BEFORE tomorrow morning so you can make any necessary adjustments to your trading this week.

OK, let’s look at my top 4 ideas for this week.  If you don’t already, consider using an intraday trigger for entries.  I like to use the 8/34 EMA Cross to the upside for longs.  You can also use the reverse for shorts.  For swings, consider using an intraday chart cross i.e.: 15-, 30- or 60-min charts.  Remember, for each trade idea, do your own due diligence and always trade with extreme caution!

Note that you don’t have to choose the same options listed below.  You’ll want to be sure to stay within your own risk tolerance and portfolio size allocation.  For less volatile price movements in your options, consider going further out of the money and/or further out on your expiration date.  In general, the further out of the money you go, the lower the delta and theta which contributes to less volatility in your option value.  The further out you go on your expiration date, the lower the theta which means less time decay should you want to hold your options longer than a day or two.  Be aware that the delta and theta values fluctuate during market hours.

Keep in mind that you don’t need a big move in the stock to have a big move in your option, up or down!  I try to keep my profit targets at about a $2+/- move in the underlying stock depending on the pattern, my entry, and target on the stock chart.  Be sure to have your own trade plan BEFORE you enter a trade depending on the direction, your entry and duration of your trade!

It’s a good idea to use bracket or OCO (one cancels all, where you can put both your profit and stop targets on one order) orders (if your trading platform has this capability) if you can’t monitor your position(s) intraday.  At the very least you may want to set alerts for yourself at certain price levels in the stock so you’ll have time to make any necessary decisions on your position(s).

Be sure to check the BONUS list at the bottom of this email for several other potential trades.  I cover several of the bonus ideas on this week’s video.  Keep in mind we are still in a headline/tweet driven market environment.  Extreme caution is always warranted!

Have a great rest of your Sunday all.

DH

***
AAPL – Apple, Inc. – Consumer Electronics – USA

AAPL has been chopping around for past couple months post split.  It’s currently in a pennant pattern on the daily.  I would watch for direction at the apex.  To the upside, has room toward the $125 psychological level with fib ext as potential resistance along the way.

To the downside, if breaks below lower trendline/8 EMA area, could see a move toward the cluster of MAs on the daily near lower symmetry.  Below there could see a move toward 100 SMA with lower fib extensions as potential support along the way.  Be sure to check your intraday charts and signals to help with timing your entries and exits in either direction.

Trade Idea – Movement of the Underlying Stock:

CALLS
Entry Zones:   $118 (p/b to 8 EMA), $120+ (above upper symmetry)
Profit Zones:   $119.50, $121.50+ areas, depending on your entry and duration
Stop Zone:      $117.25- area, close below 8 EMA, depending on entry and duration

Option Trade Idea:  Dec 18 $120 Calls    $4.15 / $4.20     Delta .49 / Theta -.07

PUTS
Entry Zones:   $119- (below Fri close), $117-, (below 8 EMA)
Profit Zones:   $118-, $116- areas, depending on your entry and duration
Stop Zone:      $119.50 area, close above Fri close, depending on entry and duration

Option Trade Idea:  Dec 18 $120 Puts    $4.80 / $4.90    Delta .51 / Theta -.07

Option Profit Zone:        10 – 50%+ depending on your entry and duration
Option Stop Zone:          5 – 25%+/- depending on your entry and duration

COST – Costco Wholesale Corporation – Discount Stores – USA

COST has been uptrending for several months now.  It closed Fri pulling back from upper symmetry.  If breaks above this level, could see a move toward the $400 psychological level, with recent $389 hi’s as well as upper fib extensions as potential resistance along the way.

To the downside, if breaks below lower symmetry, could see a move toward the lower trendline with MAs as well as lower fib extensions as potential support along the way.  Note they have earnings on 12/10 AMC.  Whichever direction you choose, be sure to check your intraday charts and signals to help with timing your entries and exits.

Trade Idea – Movement of the Underlying Stock:

CALLS
Entry Zones:     $376+ (p/b lower symmetry), $380.50 (above upper symmetry)
Profit Zones:     $378+, $382.50+ areas, depending on your entry and duration
Stop Zone:        $175- area, close below lower symmetry, depending on entry and duration

Option Trade Idea:  Dec 18 $380 Calls    $11.35 / $11.65      Delta .50 / Theta -.17

PUTS
Entry Zones:   $379- (below Fri close), $374.50- (below lower symm)
Profit Zones:   $377-, $373- areas, depending on your entry and duration
Stop Zone:      $380.50+ area, close above upper symmetry, depending on entry and duration

Option Trade Idea:  Dec 18 $370 Puts    $8.00 / $8.25  Delta .37 / Theta -.17

Option Profit Zone:         10 – 50%+ depending on your entry and duration
Option Stop Zone:           5 – 25%+ depending on your entry and duration

CSCO – Cisco Systems, Inc. – Communication Equipment – USA

CSCO gapped up after an earnings beat last week as well as an upgrade to buy $60 price range.   It’s in an RBB pattern, looking like it may complete.  Keep in mind RBBs tend to rest/consolidate at the 100 SMA.  But give how close it is to the 200 SMA, may just complete the run.  It’s a slower mover in general with a low $1.08 ATR.  If you took it last week when I was talking about it in the NINJA room, be sure to look for profits in this zone.  Technically, looks like it may have that $1 in it toward that 200 SMA.  Also, it appears from their website that they are participating in the RBC Capital Markets Global Tech conference on Nov 18 7:15a PST.  This could be potential catalyst, so keep on watch in that time frame if trading it.

To the downside, if drops below upper symmetry, could see a move toward the 50 SMA or Fri hi to close the gap up.  Again, BEFORE executing an idea or choosing your direction, be sure to check intraday charts and signals to help with timing your entries and exits.  Note the higher delta consider the price range.  You don’t need a big move in the stock to make a decent profit on your option(s).

Trade Idea – Movement of the Underlying Stock:

CALLS
Entry Zones:     $41.25+ (p/b to upper symm), $$41.50 (above Fri close)
Profit Zones:     $41.75+/-, $42 +/- areas, depending on your entry and duration
Stop Zone:        $41- area, close below upper symmetry, depending on entry and duration

Option Trade Idea:  Dec 18 $42 Calls    $.93 / $.99       Delta .43 / Theta -.02

PUTS
Entry Zones:    $41- (below upper symmetry), $40.25- (below lower symmetry)
Profit Zones:    $40.50-, $39.75- areas depending on your entry and duration
Stop Zone:       $41.25+ area, close above upper symmetry,  depending on entry and duration

Option Trade Idea:  Dec 18 $42 Puts    $1.52 / $1.56    Delta .59 / Theta -.02

Option Profit Zone:         10 – 50%+ depending on your entry and duration
Option Stop Zone:           5 – 25%+ depending on your entry and duration

APA – Apache Corporation – Oil & Gas E&P – USA

APA entered the RBB pattern on Fri when it closed above the 50 SMA.  Cheaper stock, lower ATR so in general would most likely be slower mover.  If we get confirmation over the 50 SMA on daily, could see a move toward the 200 SMA, with a couple of fib series and the 100 SMA as potential resistance along the way.

To the downside, if breaks below 50 SMA, could see a move toward 8 EMA and possible lower toward the 20 SMA near the lower 161.8 fib ext.  Again, BEFORE executing an idea, be sure to check intraday charts and signals to help with timing your entries and exits in either direction.

Trade Idea – Movement of the Underlying Stock:

CALLS
Entry Zones:  $10.25+ (p/b to 50 SMA), $10.50 (above upper symmetry)
Profit Zones:  $10.75-, $11+/- areas, depending on your entry and duration
Stop Zone:     $10- area, close below 50 SMA, depending on entry and duration

Option Trade Idea:  Jan 15 $10 Calls    $1.45 / $1.55      Delta .60 / Theta -.01

PUTS
Entry Zone:    $10- (below 50 SMA)
Profit Zone:    $9.50+/- area, depending on your entry and duration
Stop Zone:     $10.25+ area, close above 50 SMA, depending on entry and duration

Option Trade Idea:  Jan 15 $10 Puts      $1.12 / $1.23     Delta .40 / Theta -.01

Option Profit Zone:         10 – 50%+ depending on your entry and duration
Option Stop Zone:           5 – 25%+/- depending on your entry and duration

BONUS IDEAS:  Others for you to watch, moving averages are on the daily charts.  CHECK THOSE EARNINGS DATES BEFORE TAKING A TRADE.  Although I don’t send alerts or updates on these, I do cover several of them in this week’s video, so be sure to watch the video.  There are setups there that you can check out, do your own due diligence, and trade if you choose.

Watch over the 8 EMA:   ABC, CAT, CBRL, DD, DG, ETH, M, MCK, MHK, NCLH, NX, OKE, QURE, RGNX, SAGE, SAVE, VREX, ZEN

Watch over the 50 SMA:   AAL, ANIP, BMA, BP, CEIX, ICPT, NUVA, TEVA, XOM

Watch over the 100 SMA:   BAP, COP, CVX, CXO, DK, EOG, FANG, FCFS, FLIR, HFC, HP, NBR, NXTC, PSX, SU, VLO, VNOM

Potential Fib Retracements:   AAXN, ALEX, ALRM, ANF, ARMK, CPS, DAL, DXPE, EBIX, IMO, SCHW,

Potential Puts:   BABA, BAND, BYND, PTON, PVG, SEDG, STMP, W, ZM

Potential RBBs:   ALEC, CPE, CVI, INGN, KMI, LPI, MCS, MOMO, OXY, RAD, SJI, ZGNX

Potential Pinballs:   CUE, ESPR, GOSS, TCDA

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